7-14-98

OHIOANS MIX CONFIDENCE IN ECONOMY WITH JUST A HINT OF CONCERN

	COLUMBUS -- Ohio consumers remain confident about the 
nation's economy, but are beginning to show just a hint of 
concern for the future, according to an Ohio State University 
survey.

	The Ohio Consumer Confidence Index dropped just one-half 
point to 102.5 in June, down from 103 in May.

	"The fact that the index has remained above 100 throughout 
the first half of 1998 indicates consumers' continued faith in 
the strength of the economy," said Lucia Dunn, professor of 
economics at Ohio State and one of the researchers working on the 
survey.

	Consumer confidence in Ohio has stood at 100 or higher now 
for nine of the last 12 months.  There was plenty of evidence in 
the June survey of continued consumer faith in the economy, Dunn 
said.  For example, about half of Ohio consumers surveyed 
reported they were better off financially than they were one year 
ago.  And more than two-thirds of the sample said they believe 
unemployment would remain at its current low level (or even go 
lower) in the coming year.

	The feelings of Ohioans mirror those of consumers across the 
nation, as measured by the University of Michigan's Index of 
Consumer Sentiment.  That index, which is computed with identical 
methodology as the Ohio Consumer Confidence Index, also dropped 
slightly in June from its May reading.  Still, the Index of 
Consumer Sentiment has been above 100 for 16 consecutive months.

	In addition to the good news, the Ohio State survey also 
showed some reasons for concern about national business 
conditions.  For example, the number of respondents who said they 
expected bad times one year from now increased from 16.8 percent 
in May to 18.2 percent in June.  The number expecting good times 
to continue for five years decreased from 45.4 percent in May to 
42.8 percent in June.

	"This indicates a growing sense of uncertainty among 
consumers," Dunn said.

	Ohio consumers also expect to see a rise in inflation in 
coming months.  Their average expected rate of inflation for the 
next 12 months increased from 3.1 percent in May to 4.3 percent 
in June.

	"While it is too early to tell if the June data signal a 
significant new direction in the inflationary mentality of the 
consumer, this will be an important variable to watch in the 
coming months," Dunn said.

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Contact:  Lucia Dunn, (614) 292-8071
Written by Jeff Grabmeier, (614) 292-8457